Brexit: Madness or Forward Thinking?

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The mainstream narrative in Europe is that Brexit was a monumental mistake mothered by populism and sired by in house political power struggles and lots of other domestic tribulations in the UK.

On the other hand the British have been discussing a withdrawal from Europe for decades so it’d be hard to attribute the whole affair to simple knee jerk political opportunism gone wrong. And therefore this theory considers if we’re all just missing the true genius of Brexit which is revealed by predicting the world in ten to twenty years time.

Consider the world we are told to expect. 1) rapid increase in population, 2) resource shortage and 3) increasing climate chaos leading to droughts, floods, wildfire. All of the above are pretty likely. How bad things get is anyone’s guess but but lets assume things go badly pear shaped.

Then there’ll be more war, mass migration and terrorism. (Al Gore points at the mess in Syria as an example of a nation plunged into war by the worst drought in 900 years).

In this future it’s not unreasonable to think that the UK would prefer to be out of any club that can dictate terms on climate action, involvement in wars and response to migration.

In that chaotic future the UK could pick and choose their efforts on climate action (Ireland is likely to be fined by the EU for its failure to meet environmental / energy targets), bring in draconian domestic laws to fight illegal immigration (including mass repatriation), close the border, curb civil disobedience or suspected terrorist activity. They’ll have no external European Court of Human Rights or higher power to restrict them and the UN is fairly toothless in many ways.

By being outside the EU the UK can stay out of wars being fought by the EU and it’s army. The UK is also a major producer of weapons and again escape from the restrictions of Europe may benefit those industries.

Then there’s trade. What good is all of the above if the UK economy collapses because of failure to agree terms with the EU. My guess is that the UK Brexiteers are gambling that solutions will eventually be found to allow a return to similar trading terms as it previously enjoyed with Europe. The EU Trades heavily with the UK and so it’s in everyone’s interests to get a deal. And so the short term instability that Brexit and Brexit negotiations are causing will be worth it in the long run.

It’s a theory anyway


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