I was initially sanguine in relation to the danger posed by deepfakes – I recognised them as a problem but assumed that the videos would be easily identifiable as frauds and could pose little systemic risk to the Western political system. And then Grok came along. I now think deepfakes could have a consequential impact in the 2024 US Presidential Election. Here’s why.
Maybe you’ve seen the deepfake videos (of Harris, Trump and many others) which were created using Elon Musks AI system Grok? The fakes are a vivid example of what awaits us in the coming months. The creators of the images, the Dor Brothers, thanked Grok in the post adding, “We don’t hold any political stance, just having some fun”. They flagged their creations as deepfakes but not everyone else will. The Grok AI system has no censorship filter and is an invitation for chaos monkeys to create havoc.
The US Presidential Election is ripe for deepfakes with many voters still believing Trump’s claim that the 2020 election was stolen. The number of bad faith actors ranges from domestic political opponents, foreign powers seeking to increase divisions in the US, to lone wolf ideologues determined to influence the outcome. We’ve seen how powerful influencers can accelerate the spread of deepfakes (as happened when Elon Musk shared a video of Kamala Harris) and later innocently downplay their involvement. And we know that once a story goes viral it’s almost impossible to rein it in even with the cooperation of social media companies who are at best slow, and at worst unwilling to moderate or remove content.
Even reputable media outlets may publish material which hasn’t been verified for authenticity if they feel it could make a meaningful impact on the outcome of an election. No one wants to be accused of suppressing vital information (remember the Hunter Biden laptop debacle?). And even with good intentions, reliable sources may inadvertently amplify certain stories: the Associated Press published an article in July 2024 debunking the infamous couch rumor with the headline “No, JD Vance did not have sex with a couch” but later withdrew the piece fanning further questions.Â
Deepfakes are most dangerous when they are seen by voters with pre-existing biases, voters with a lack of information about current affairs and among voters who lack the critical thinking or technical skills to identify fake material. Equally voters who rely heavily on partisan sources of information are more likely to encounter fake information. In summary, trust is low, the atmosphere is charged and gun ownership is high. These are bad combinations. And now we are adding ever improving deepfakes.
The greatest danger lies in the final hours and days of the election itself. A flurry of deepfake videos at this point would be challenging to identify quickly and counteract meaningfully. Therefore, by way of a thought experiment let’s look at what some of these fakes could look like. Remember a deepfake may not change the course of the election but if they increase mistrust in US democracy then they are impactful.
Fake Statements by Candidates:
This is probably the most obvious category for deepfakes. Consider a scenario where videos appear of either Trump or Harris conceding defeat in the final hours prior to polling while also advising supporters not to waste their time going to the polling station. Equally, candidates could be portrayed inciting violence or making incendiary statements stirring up opposition backlash. Imagine Harris or one of her senior campaign team appearing to mock Trumps “trailer trash” voters. Influential celebrity endorsements (or withdrawal of same) could appear in the hours prior to polling casting doubt on the credibility of either candidate.Â
Off Camera Smear:
Footage could appear of a candidate making incendiary remarks or engaging in drug taking or other politically damaging activity in a deepfake that is made to look like secret footage. Video footage from CCTV or obscurely positioned cameras is often naturally of lower quality and thus a close up wouldn’t be necessary or expected. Where a deepfake avoided direct facial clarity it would be challenging to assess the typical tell tale signs of such videos: e.g. the correlation between speech and lip movements. The fake only has to be realistic enough to be believable and it will go viral.
Merging Real Incidents with Deepfake:
Deepfakes could connect candidates or their campaign teams to the scenes of real crimes or controversial incidents. AI generated footage showing a person leaving the scene of where an accident occurred (in real life) would not secure an actual criminal conviction but could easily cause political damage in the hours leading up to the election day. By cleverly linking the location of the footage to where a candidate actually appeared the material could gain credibility. The headline accompanying a deepfake video might read: “Footage emerges from scene of hit and run near last nights Trump Rally in Pittsburgh.”
AI and Political Violence:
Many commentators speculate that the US would have been engulfed in chaos had the Trump shooter escaped without trace. It would have fed conspiracy and deepened mistrust in American society. Future possible acts of political violence could easily lead to related AI generated deepfakes creating additional fear and panic in communities across the US. By going one step further and combining staged videos (with actual actors) and AI generated deepfakes the line between what is real and fake would become even more challenging to discern. Given the ease of creation, deepfakes could be used to intimidate campaigners on either side, threatening violence at polling stations or spreading rumours about shootings in critical constituencies. Several swing states are likely to be key to the final outcome and they are more prone to some kind of misinformation campaign.
Election? What election?
Trump still disputes the outcome of the 2020 election in what commentators have dubbed the “The Big Lie”. Therefore it’s not unreasonable to speculate he could try to scupper the election entirely, especially if the polls predict a resounding defeat for the Republican. In the days prior to voting Trump could publicly react to deepfake videos (purporting to show election rigging by Democrats) and demand that the election be cancelled. He could declare the process a fraud and instruct his supporters to boycott the vote, warning all citizens to stay away from the polling centres for their own safety. Equally consider the dystopian scenario that could arise if Trump simply chose to disappear without trace prior to the election later claiming he had been abducted to stop him campaigning.
Ultimately I think deepfakes are another challenge that can be overcome but this moment is pivotal in US election history and therefore vigilance and preparation are crucial. Watch this space.
McNally's Miscellany 